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2007

Historical and future development of air transport fuel efficiency

Peeters, P. M. & Middel, J.
Bibliographical information:
Peeters, P. M. & Middel, J. (2007) Historical and future development of air transport fuel efficiency. IN Sausen, R., Blum, A., Lee, D. S. & Brüning, C. (Eds.) Proceedings of an International Conference on Transport, Atmosphere and Climate (TAC); Oxford, United Kingdom, 26th to 29th June 2006, 42-47. Oberpfaffenhoven: DLR Institut für Physic der Atmosphäre.

Abstract
The historical developments of the average fuel efficiency of both piston and jet powered aircraft are reviewed with the objective to find ways to better forecast future developments. It is argued that the current methods of a constant percentage efficiency improvement per year cannot satisfactorily represent the historical time series. A sigmoidal model is suggested for better fits and more reliable prognoses, leading to less optimistic fuel efficiency gains for 2040 than suggested in current literature.

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