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The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy

Dubois, G., Peeters, P., Ceron, J-P. & Gössling, S.
Bibliographical information:
Dubois, G., Ceron, J.-P., Peeters, P., & Gössling, S. (2011). The future tourism mobility of the world population: emission growth versus climate policy Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 45(10), 1031-1042.

Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest
in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was
responsible for around 5% of all CO2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger
transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals
predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to
rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This
is especially true under climate stabilisation and ‘‘avoiding dangerous climate change”
objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of 50% to 80% by 2050,
compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating
quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions
in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related
mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results.
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