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Technology, scenario's and uncertainty

Bows, A., Anderson, K., Peeters, P.
Bibliographical information:
Bows, A., Anderson, K. & Peeters, P. (2007) Technology, scenario's and uncertainty. Policy dialogue on tourism, transport and climate change: Stakeholders meet researchers, 15-04-2007. Paris: eCLAT

The EU Commission wishes to play its part in ensuring global temperatures do not rise by 2ºC above pre-industrial levels by reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 60-80% by 2050 from 1990 levels. Although they accept that emissions from the aviation industry are important, their targets continue to omit this ever-growing sector. Furthermore, by using percentage reduction targets, they are neglecting the crucial importance of both cumulative emissions and carbon-cycle feedbacks. This paper aims to address both the target’s deficiencies and the likely contribution that technology can make to improving aviation fuel efficiency, by quantifying the contribution of the aviation industry to future EU climate change targets in relation to CO2 alone. This paper demonstrates that, despite a variety of technological options available to improve fuel efficiency within the aviation industry, current high rates of growth are locking aviation into becoming a very significant contributor to the EU’s climate change emissions within the next few decades.
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